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Fossil Demand Forecasting Challenge

$5 000 USD
Completed (~4 years ago)
Forecast
1016 joined
200 active
Starti
24 May 22
Closei
28 Aug 22
Reveali
28 Aug 22
A simple 192xxx benchmark
Notebooks Ā· 23 Jul 2022, 13:07 Ā· 2

Hello !

Here is (another) starter with some (quick) theoretical justification explaining the score improvement, hope you will find it useful !

https://www.thekerneltrip.com/statistics/l1-baseline-fossil-stock-forecasting-challenge/

The code is at the bottom of the article

Discussion 2 answers
User avatar

Nice article! Thanks for sharing! Could you explain better this part?

"All the models relying on the minimization of least squares (usual regressions, random forests with default parameters) are likely to perform poorly since they will return the mean over subsambles, while minimizing the absolute error returns the mean of the sample."

Why MAE represents mean of the sample and MSE the mean of subsamples? And why in the equation and code you used the median?

Upvotes 1
User avatar
ashioyajotham

Great work pal

Upvotes 0